Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
